Re: Machine Learning and census models
How about this approach:
1. Don't look at the data! If you have looked at the data, find a machine learning expert who has not looked at the data and ask him to do it for you. [Unless you have some method of forgetting what you have seen, that is.]
2. Pick a learning method suited to the size of the data set and use leaveoneout crossvalidation to find the optimal hypothesis.
The interesting question is what learning method in the second part. Something pretty general and regularized.
3. Bear in mind that extrapolation of nonstationary processes is not necessarily possible (the cross validation has an easy time of it, because most of the data points are internal).
