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Old 06-02-2013, 04:02 PM
Elroch Elroch is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 143
Default Re: Data snooping and science

Originally Posted by Michael Reach View Post
Elroch, I don't know if you read Nate Silver's book "The Signal and the Noise", which I enjoyed a lot. He spends a lot of time on overfitting. And he does point out there that the original global warming predictions have been much closer to the mark on the test data (the future) than the later model predictions. He suggests that overfitting is the reason.
Only thing is, a lot of people got really upset at him for it!
That is very interesting! I am surprised, as my understanding was that those models were entirely physical rather than heuristic.

One thing that annoys me is when denialists argue against global warming on the basis of short term data. There are people who simply cannot comprehend the idea of a trend with some sort of random or extraneous variations superimposed on it, despite the fact that they exist in almost every aspect of the world.
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