Quote:
Originally Posted by ketchers
I would be curious on how to calculate  or estimate  the average number of iterations for convergence  as well as the probability

Calculating these quantities analytically is not tractable. Estimating them using Monte Carlo methods, i.e., by running many random instances of the problem and averaging, is what we are after here. As you point out, there are many sources of randomness and some will result in significant variation. However, repeating the experiment a large number of times will overcome that variance. The numbers given for this problem were chosen to achieve that.