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Old 06-02-2013, 01:03 PM
Michael Reach Michael Reach is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Baltimore, Maryland, USA
Posts: 71
Default Re: Data snooping and science

Elroch, I don't know if you read Nate Silver's book "The Signal and the Noise", which I enjoyed a lot. He spends a lot of time on overfitting. And he does point out there that the original global warming predictions have been much closer to the mark on the test data (the future) than the later model predictions. He suggests that overfitting is the reason.
Only thing is, a lot of people got really upset at him for it!
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