Quote:
Originally Posted by canon1230
If an urn contains 100 green or red marbles, and you sample 10 and they are all green, what is the probability that they are all green?

The short reply is that probability does not tell us this answer, unless there are more assumptions.
Put it to the simplest case, if you flip a coin and get a head, what is the head probability of the coin? The answer can be "any nonzero number" but there is no further information to pin it down.
Hope this helps.