Thread: Problem 1.1
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Old 09-09-2015, 11:48 AM
eshmrt eshmrt is offline
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Default Re: Problem 1.1

Can you elaborate on the hint for this problem? It seems to me that in your alternative problem you aren't using Bayes' Theorem. Wouldn't using Bays' dictate that you would say P[A|B] stands for the probability that the second ball is black assuming that the first ball is black, which in your problem would be 100% and P[B] stands for the probability that the first ball is black, which would be 50% because either the bag with two white balls or the bag with two black balls could be chosen. Therefore P[A|B]P[B] = 1/2.

I understand your result intuitively. I just don't understand how Bayes' Theorem is being applied to arrive at that result as direction by the hint in the textbook.
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