[fgpancorbo]

Originally Posted by yaser

(emphasis added)
It should be based on rater than out of. A source of confusion here is that is a probability, but then we have a probability distribution over . Let us just call the fraction of heart attacks in the population. Then the problem is addressing the probability distribution of that fraction - Is the fraction more likely to be 0.1 or 0.5 or 0.9 etc. The prior is that that fraction is equally likely to be anything (uniform probability). The problem then asks how this probability is modified if we get a sample of a single patient and they happen to have a heart attack.

I see. If my understanding is correct, I think that I can safely assume that , in which is made of a single random variable say , has a Bernoulli distribution with parameter . Is that right?